Everyone keeps asking me “Emily what is going on in the market? Are prices going to go up? Are prices going to go down? Should I buy? Should I sell? What’s going on?” I’m here to tell you what’s going on:
I’ve got a quick market update for 2nd Quarter 2023. I’m gonna make this short and sweet. I’ll give you the stats and then explain what it all means for you as a buyer, a seller, or just a homeowner who wants to know what’s going on.
I am using stats for single family homes and condos in the Conejo Valley.
New listings 488 (this is down about 30% from this time last year when we had 683)
Days on market – 24 (this is the same as last year… 24 days) it means that homes are selling quickly.
Months of Inventory we currently have 1.28 months of inventory.
A “balanced” market is 5-6 mos of inventory. A Buyers market is 6+ months of inventory. 1.28 months of inventory means that if no new homes came on the market, it would take 1.28 months for all the homes on the market to be gone. This signals that we are in a Sellers market.
Median home price is $1,125,000 (this is pretty close to where we were this time last year… $1,162,000) – remember, 2nd quarter 2022 is what everyone referred to as the “peak” right before interest rates went up and home values started declining. But they didn’t decline much, or for very long before they started creeping back up. We are now just about back to that “peak” and it’s looking like values are only continuing to rise.
So what's the bottom line?
Despite higher interest rates, home values are continuing to increase because inventory is so tight and demand for a home in the Conejo Valley is so high.
Low inventory is pushing our home values higher and it’s not going to change anytime soon. Here’s why:
- People are living longer and staying in their homes longer
- Millenials make up 31% of the population (Boomers were 27% at their peak) and they make up almost half of all homebuyers.
- The only way to create more inventory is to BUILD. But we do not have any available land to build on in the Conejo Valley. I recently met with the city’s economic development analyst, and he showed me what the future building plans are for Thousand Oaks – they’re only building apartment buildings that will be for rent. There are a couple parcels here and there where they’ll build single family homes, but it’s not enough to make a difference in inventory. What we need is another large planned development like Dos Vientos or Lang Ranch, but it won’t happen for many reasons. Reach out to me and we can dive into more specifics on that if you’d like.
What does this all mean for YOU?
The Fed has temporarily paused rate hikes, but has signaled that they do expect to raise them again.
If you’re a buyer, buy now! Rates are going to go up and home values are expected to go up. The longer you wait, the less you can afford.
When interest rates do finally come down, we are bracing for another year like 2021 where homes start selling faster than we can get them on the market. Where buyers are up against 10-20 other offers, all of which are over-asking, removing all contingencies, and home values will skyrocket.
As a buyer, you’re looking to get a good deal, right? Well the deal is, you’re getting a good deal by getting to own a home in the Conejo Valley. It is something that is becoming more and more out of reach for many buyers. Don’t let that be you.
If you’re a seller, there are a lot of buyers out there who want your home! BUT, today’s buyers are discerning. They want homes that are in good condition. If your home is not in good condition, you’re not likely to get top dollar.
If you’re considering buying or selling, reach out to me anytime. It would be my pleasure to help you navigate this real estate market.
Talk to you soon.
emilyberdonRE@gmail.com
Aviara Real Estate
CALBRE #02166248
